1
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?
是0%
100%否
24h成交量
$10.7M
流动性
$1.9M
截止
10mo
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当前热门预测市场
按24小时交易量排序 — 全球最活跃的市场
30 markets
2
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals?
是0%
100%否
24h成交量
$7.6M
流动性
$561.5K
截止
4mo
3
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?
是1%
99%否
24h成交量
$3.8M
流动性
$770.5K
截止
Ended
4
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
是11%
90%否
24h成交量
$3.6M
流动性
$1.3M
截止
Ended
5
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February?
是0%
100%否
24h成交量
$3.0M
流动性
$3.5M
截止
3d 11h
6
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
是0%
100%否
24h成交量
$2.4M
流动性
$1.3M
截止
3mo
7
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
是1%
99%否
24h成交量
$1.7M
流动性
$2.1M
截止
20d 6h
8
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?
是2%
98%否
24h成交量
$1.4M
流动性
$353.7K
截止
Ended
9
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading?
是11%
89%否
24h成交量
$1.4M
流动性
$82.6K
截止
NaNh
10
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?
是4%
96%否
24h成交量
$1.3M
流动性
$1.4M
截止
10mo
11
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
是1%
99%否
24h成交量
$1.2M
流动性
$1.3M
截止
2y
12
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading?
是39%
62%否
24h成交量
$1.1M
流动性
$46.4K
截止
NaNh
13
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
是17%
84%否
24h成交量
$1.0M
流动性
$1.1M
截止
10mo
14
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?
是0%
100%否
24h成交量
$905.1K
流动性
$1.1M
截止
10mo
15
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026?
是0%
100%否
24h成交量
$902.2K
流动性
$126.6K
截止
Ended
16
Thunder vs. Pistons
是28%
73%否
24h成交量
$894.9K
流动性
$154.3K
截止
6h
17
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs New Zealand
是0%
100%否
24h成交量
$872.1K
流动性
$291.7K
截止
6d 19h
18
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?
是2%
98%否
24h成交量
$849.1K
流动性
$1.6M
截止
20d 6h
19
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
是1%
99%否
24h成交量
$799.1K
流动性
$506.9K
截止
2y
20
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
是61%
40%否
24h成交量
$797.6K
流动性
$510.0K
截止
4mo
21
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 25?
是0%
100%否
24h成交量
$796.7K
流动性
$398.6K
截止
Ended
22
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February?
是7%
93%否
24h成交量
$791.8K
流动性
$126.1K
截止
3d 11h
23
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
是24%
76%否
24h成交量
$780.0K
流动性
$100.4K
截止
4mo
24
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?
是3%
97%否
24h成交量
$753.4K
流动性
$47.5K
截止
3d 11h
25
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
是0%
100%否
24h成交量
$746.6K
流动性
$144.5K
截止
10mo
26
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
是1%
99%否
24h成交量
$725.0K
流动性
$594.3K
截止
2y
27
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
是1%
99%否
24h成交量
$713.9K
流动性
$2.3M
截止
20d 6h
28
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25?
是59%
42%否
24h成交量
$703.1K
流动性
$258.1K
截止
2h
29
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
是1%
99%否
24h成交量
$697.5K
流动性
$883.2K
截止
2y
30
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
是6%
94%否
24h成交量
$688.4K
流动性
$435.6K
截止
2y
⚡ 概率变化最大的市场
概率变化最大的市场
过去24小时内最具争议的市场
12345678
激烈争议2h
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25?
YES 59%$703.1K / 24h
高活跃度4mo
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
YES 61%$797.6K / 24h
高活跃度NaNh
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading?
YES 39%$1.1M / 24h
高活跃度6h
Thunder vs. Pistons
YES 28%$894.9K / 24h
高活跃度4mo
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
YES 24%$780.0K / 24h
高活跃度10mo
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
YES 17%$1.0M / 24h
高活跃度NaNh
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading?
YES 11%$1.4M / 24h
高活跃度Ended
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
YES 11%$3.6M / 24h
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GeopoliticsPoliticsMiddle East4mo left
US strikes Iran by...?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolv…
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?
YES0%
100%NO
$418.2M
总成交量
$22.2M
24h成交量
$4.0M
流动性
相关市场 (57)
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?YES 0%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?YES 0%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?YES 0%
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$11.4K liq.
什么是预测市场？
预测市场允许参与者通过交易反映概率估计的合约来预测现实世界的结果。Polymarket等平台汇集集体智慧，估计政治、金融、科技和全球事务等领域未来事件的可能性。
预测市场为何重要
- 1通常优于传统民调和专家预测
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- 3新闻发生时实时更新
- 4汇集数千名参与者的集体智慧
常见问题
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研究一致表明，预测市场通过汇集多元信息并提供准确性的经济激励，往往优于传统民调和专家预测。
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