πŸ“– Complete Guide

Whale Tracker Guide

Everything you need to know about tracking smart money on Polymarket β€” how whales are identified, what each feature reveals, and how to interpret the data.

How It Works

What counts as a whale?

A wallet is tracked as a whale if it meets either of these criteria:

β‰₯ $5,000
Single Trade
β‰₯ $25,000
7-Day Volume

Whale Tiers

TierDescription
🐳 WhaleCore tracking population β€” meets the base $5K / $25K threshold
🦈 Mega WhaleTop-tier traders by volume and influence β€” the highest-impact wallets on the platform

Influence Score (0–100)

A composite score measuring a wallet's overall market impact, weighted across five factors:

FactorWeightWhat it measures
Profitability30%Realized PnL on resolved markets
Capital25%Total trading volume deployed
Consistency20%Win rate across trades
Activity15%Frequency of trades
Longevity10%Time active on Polymarket

Data Freshness

Each feature page refreshes on its own schedule using Next.js ISR:

FeatureRefresh Rate
Hub / Leaderboard5 minutes
Signal Feed2 minutes
Recent Activity60 seconds
Capital Flow5 minutes
Trading Pairs10 minutes
Smart Money / PerformanceHourly

Features

The Whale Tracker is split into 7 specialized views. Each is designed to answer a specific question about smart money behavior.

Signal Feed β†’

Real-time smart money patterns

Large Position
Single buy β‰₯ $10K β€” a whale making a high-conviction bet.
Multi-Whale
3+ different whales entering the same market within 2 hours β€” coordinated interest.
Contrarian Bet
Whale buying the underdog (price ≀ 30Β’) β€” betting against crowd consensus.
Doubling Down
2+ buys totaling β‰₯ $10K in one market β€” increasing conviction.
Capital Flow β†’

Where whale money is moving

Inflow
24h whale buy volume β‰₯ $5K β€” fresh capital entering a market.
Outflow
Net whale sell volume dominant β€” smart money exiting or taking profits.
New Interest
First-ever whale trade recorded in this market β€” early discovery signal.
Cooling
Volume dropped 80%+ vs prior period β€” whale interest fading.
Smart Money vs Crowd β†’

Where whales disagree with the market

Divergence threshold
A divergence is flagged when |whale YES% βˆ’ market price| β‰₯ 15%. Based on $1K+ whale trades in the last 48h.
Bullish divergence
Whales are positioned YES higher than the crowd β€” they expect a higher probability than the market prices in.
Bearish divergence
Whales are positioned YES lower than the crowd β€” they expect a lower probability than the market prices in.
Gap %
The magnitude of the disagreement β€” how many percentage points whale positioning differs from market price.
Performance Leaderboard β†’

Who's making money and how

Realized PnL
Profit and loss on closed (resolved) positions only. Unrealized gains on open markets are excluded.
Win Rate
Percentage of resolved bets that were profitable.
ROI
Return on investment across all resolved positions (PnL Γ· total capital deployed).
Cost basis
Calculated using a FIFO (first-in, first-out) model. Only fully resolved markets count.
Trading Pairs β†’

Whales that trade together

Pair criteria
Two wallets form a pair if they traded 3+ of the same markets within the last 30 days.
Direction agreement
What % of shared markets they traded in the same direction (both YES or both NO).
"Fully aligned"
Direction agreement β‰₯ 70% β€” the pair trades together and agrees on outcomes.
Ranking
Pairs ranked by market overlap count, then combined volume.
Compare Wallets β†’

Side-by-side wallet analysis

How to use
Enter any two Polymarket wallet addresses (0x...) and hit Compare.
What you get
Side-by-side: total volume, win rate, Influence Score, shared markets (up to 20 shown).
Volume %
Which wallet controls a higher share of combined trading volume.
Shared markets
Markets both wallets have traded β€” the overlap shows common interests.
Wallet Profiles β†’

Deep-dive on any tracked wallet

Profile card
Volume, win rate, Influence Score, tier, and time active.
Outcome bias
Does this whale skew YES or NO across all their trades?
Top markets
The markets where this wallet has deployed the most capital.
Peer wallets
Other whales with similar trading patterns.
Trade history
Full log of individual trades, open positions, and resolved outcomes.

Frequently Asked Questions

What counts as a whale on PolyTrends?

A wallet is classified as a whale if it meets either criterion: a single trade β‰₯ $5,000, or a total 7-day trading volume β‰₯ $25,000.

How fresh is the data?

It depends on the feature. The Signal Feed refreshes every 2 minutes, the hub leaderboard every 5 minutes, and Capital Flow every 5 minutes. Smart Money and Performance update hourly. See the full freshness table in the "How It Works" section.

What is the Influence Score?

A 0–100 composite score that measures a wallet's overall market impact. It combines five factors: Profitability (30%), Capital deployed (25%), Consistency/win rate (20%), Activity/trade frequency (15%), and Longevity on Polymarket (10%).

Can I track my own wallet?

Yes β€” if your wallet meets the threshold, navigate to /whales/wallet/YOUR_ADDRESS and replace YOUR_ADDRESS with your Polymarket wallet address. Your full profile will be available.

What does "divergence" mean in Smart Money?

Divergence is the gap between where whales are positioned and what the market's current price implies. A gap of 15% or more is flagged. For example, if whales hold 70% YES positions but the market price is 45Β’, that's a 25-point bullish divergence.

Are whale signals guaranteed to be correct?

No. This is analytics data, not financial advice. Whales can and do make losing bets. Use these insights as one input among many β€” never as standalone trading signals.

How are Trading Pairs identified?

Two wallets form a pair when they have both traded 3 or more of the same markets within the last 30 days. The more overlap, the stronger the co-trading relationship.

What's the difference between Capital Inflow and a Signal?

Capital Flow tracks the direction and magnitude of whale money across all markets β€” it's volume-level data. Signals are pattern-triggered events: a single Large Position ($10K+) is a signal, but $3K spread across 5 small trades is just flow data.

Glossary

Whale
A wallet that placed a single trade β‰₯ $5K or has β‰₯ $25K in 7-day volume.
Mega Whale
Top-tier whale with the highest influence scores and trading volumes.
Influence Score
A 0–100 composite score combining profitability, capital, consistency, activity, and longevity.
Signal
An algorithmically-detected pattern: Large Position, Multi-Whale, Contrarian Bet, or Doubling Down.
Divergence
A 15%+ gap between whale positioning and the market's current price on a given question.
Capital Inflow
Net whale buy volume entering a market in the last 24 hours (β‰₯ $5K).
Capital Outflow
Net whale sell volume leaving a market β€” smart money reducing exposure.
New Interest
A market's first-ever recorded whale trade β€” early discovery signal.
Cooling
A market where whale volume dropped β‰₯ 80% compared to the prior period.
Trading Pair
Two wallets that traded 3+ of the same markets within the last 30 days.
Direction Agreement
The % of shared markets where two wallets traded the same direction (YES/NO).
Realized PnL
Profit or loss on fully resolved (closed) positions only β€” open markets excluded.
Win Rate
Percentage of resolved positions that were profitable.
ROI
Return on investment across all resolved positions (realized PnL Γ· capital deployed).
Contrarian Bet
A whale buying the underdog β€” a market outcome priced at ≀ 30 cents.